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Using Techno-Economic Analysis’ Scenario Analysis to Pick Your Microbial Producer

  • Writer: Gustavo Valente
    Gustavo Valente
  • Apr 1, 2024
  • 10 min read
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Developing a new bio-based product often relies on identifying the most efficient microorganism for the job. Traditionally, this involved a time-consuming and resource-intensive process – extensive laboratory testing of numerous candidate microbes. But what if you could significantly narrow down your options before even entering the lab?

This is where Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) and scenario analysis come in. By using these powerful tools, you can evaluate potential microbial producers in silico (on a computer), saving time, and resources, and accelerating your path to a successful product.

What is TEA?

TEA is a systematic approach to evaluating the economic viability of a process. Among many other factors, it considers process-related factors like:


  • Feedstock costs: This refers to the raw materials the microorganism needs to grow and produce your desired product. The cost of these materials can fluctuate, so TEA helps you understand how these fluctuations might affect your overall production costs.

  • Capital equipment costs: This includes the fermentation equipment itself, as well as the supporting infrastructure needed to run the process efficiently. Examples include energy supply systems, steam generation, and waste management facilities. TEA helps you estimate the upfront investment required for these elements.

  • Downstream processing (DSP) costs: Once the fermentation process is complete, you need to isolate, purify, and stabilize your target product from the fermentation broth. Depending on whether the microorganism produces the product intracellularly or extracellularly, downstream processing can involve different technologies and steps. TEA helps you evaluate the cost associated with these various purification methods.

  • Microorganism efficiency: This refers to the theoretical amount of product the microorganism can produce per unit of feedstock consumed. While a microorganism might have a high theoretical yield, other factors like downstream processing complexity can significantly impact actual production efficiency. TEA helps you understand this interplay between theoretical yield and real-world production costs.


The Power of Scenario Analysis

Scenario analysis takes TEA a step further. It allows you to explore how changes in various factors might impact the overall economic viability of your bio-based production process. Here are some examples of how scenario analysis can be used:


  • Impact of Fluctuating Feedstock Prices: The cost of feedstocks like sugars can fluctuate. Scenario analysis allows you to assess how these price swings might affect your overall production costs and profitability.

  • Effect of Varying Yields: Microbial yields can vary slightly between different strains or under different growth conditions. Scenario analysis helps you understand how these variations in yield might impact your bottom line.

  • Sensitivity to Downstream Processing: The efficiency of downstream processing can also impact production costs. Scenario analysis allows you to assess how sensitive your overall process is to changes in purification efficiency.


Benefits of Using TEA’Scenario Analysis

By incorporating scenario analysis into TEA, you gain valuable insights that can significantly benefit your bio-based product development process:


  • Reduced Time and Costs: Identify promising candidate microbes through in-silico analysis before investing in extensive lab work. This helps you avoid wasting resources on less suitable options.

  • Early Risk Identification: Uncover potential challenges associated with different microbial producers or feedstocks before significant resources are committed. This allows you to develop mitigation strategies and make informed decisions early in the development process.

  • Improved Decision Making: Gain data-driven insights to optimize your bio-based production process. TEA helps you understand where to allocate resources for maximum impact and profitability.


Choosing the Right Feedstock:

Selecting the optimal feedstock, and the raw material your microorganism consumes is a critical step in designing a successful bio-based production process. Several factors influence this choice, ensuring compatibility, economic viability, and overall efficiency.


  • The desired product: Different microbes and fermentation processes produce different products (e.g., biofuels, organic acids, proteins). The specific product will influence the type of feedstock needed. And in some cases, the same product can be produced by different microorganisms.

  • Microbial Capabilities: Matching Consumption with Conversion Beyond the desired product, consider the specific capabilities of your chosen microorganism. Different microbes have evolved to utilize various feedstocks with varying efficiencies. Matching a microorganism with a feedstock it can readily consume and efficiently convert into your target product is crucial for optimal process performance.

  • Cost and Availability at Large Scale: The cost of the feedstock and its consistent availability for large-scale production are essential factors. While readily available sugars like glucose may seem ideal, their high cost can impact overall process economics. Alternatively, abundant and renewable feedstocks like lignocellulose (cellulose and hemicellulose from plant materials) offer a more sustainable option but may require pre-treatment steps to convert them into usable sugars, adding complexity and potential cost.


Types of Feedstock and Consideration Factors:

1. Simple Sugars (Glucose, Fructose, Sucrose): While readily available, TEA helps assess the commercial viability of using simple sugars at a large scale. TEA considers factors like:


  • Price fluctuations: Can your process handle potential swings in sugar prices?

  • Conversion efficiency: How efficiently does your chosen microorganism convert these sugars into your product?

  • Alternative sources: Are there more cost-effective ways to obtain simple sugars (e.g., sugar beet vs. sugarcane)?


2. Complex Sugars (Starch from Corn, Wheat, Potatoes, Cassava):

Starch requires enzymatic breakdown, adding costs. Through TEA, you can evaluate:


  • Pre-treatment impact: How much does enzymatic breakdown add to the overall production cost?

  • Microbial efficiency: Does your chosen microorganism utilize all the released sugars from starch, or are there potential losses?


3. Cellulose: Cellulose offers a vast, renewable resource, but requires complex and sometimes energy-intensive pre-treatment. TEA helps assess:


  • Pre-treatment costs: Can the energy needed for pre-treatment be justified by the overall process economics?

  • Microbial limitations: Are there readily available microbes that efficiently convert cellulose to your desired product?


4. Hemicellulose: TEA helps analyze the trade-offs of using hemicellulose:


  • Pre-treatment needs: How complex and expensive is the pre-treatment process for hemicellulose compared to other options?

  • Technology maturity: Are there well-established processes for utilizing hemicellulose with your chosen microorganism?


5. Oils and Fats: While offering high energy density, oils and fats require specific considerations:


  • Pre-treatment requirements: Does the chosen oil source need additional processing to remove impurities before fermentation?

  • Downstream processing challenges: How will product recovery from oil-based broths impact overall production costs?


6. Waste Streams: Waste streams offer a sustainable and potentially low-cost option, but require careful analysis:


  • Process adjustments: How much will your fermentation process need to adapt to accommodate variations in waste stream composition?

  • Pre-treatment needs: What pre-treatment steps are necessary to remove contaminants and ensure efficient utilization by your microorganism?


How can TEA help you select the Best Feedstock? 

Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) goes beyond simply identifying a suitable feedstock for your bio-based product. It goes deeper to assess the economic viability of different options, considering crucial factors that can impact your bottom line:


  • Price Fluctuations: Feedstock prices can be volatile. TEA helps you evaluate how sensitive your process is to these fluctuations. Can you adjust your process or product pricing to accommodate potential price swings?

  • Conversion Efficiency: This refers to how much of the feedstock your chosen microorganism can convert into your desired product. A higher conversion efficiency translates to lower overall costs and less waste generation.

  • Alternative Sources: Exploring options beyond the most common feedstock can uncover hidden gems. TEA can help you compare the cost-effectiveness of alternative sources, considering factors like transportation costs and potential discounts for bulk purchases.

  • Pre-treatment Costs: Complex feedstocks like cellulose often require pre-treatment steps (e.g., enzymatic breakdown) to make them accessible to microorganisms. TEA helps you analyze the impact of these pre-treatment steps on the overall production cost.


Beyond Simple Costs: Microbial Capabilities and DSP

While price is important, TEA goes beyond simple cost considerations. It also factors in:


  • Microbial Limitations: Not all microorganisms are created equal. TEA helps you assess if there are readily available microbes that can efficiently convert your chosen feedstock into the desired product.

  • Technology Maturity: Some feedstocks, like lignocellulose, require sophisticated pre-treatment technologies. TEA can help you evaluate the maturity and economic feasibility of using these technologies with your chosen microorganism. Established processes with proven track records offer lower risks compared to those in early development stages.

  • Downstream Processing Challenges: The ease of extracting and purifying your final product from the fermentation broth can significantly impact costs. TEA helps you analyze the challenges associated with downstream processing for different feedstocks. For example, recovering a product from oils and fats might require additional steps compared to a simple sugar solution. This can influence your choice of feedstock.

  • Process Adjustments for Waste Streams: Waste streams can be a potential source of low-cost feedstocks for bio-based production. However, they often have variable compositions. TEA helps you analyze how much your fermentation process needs to adapt to accommodate these variations. Highly variable waste streams may require additional process adjustments compared to more consistent feedstocks, potentially impacting overall costs.


Optimizing the Entire Process

By using TEA to evaluate different feedstocks, you can move beyond a basic cost comparison. TEA helps you identify the combination of microorganisms and feedstock that offers the most economically viable path to producing your desired product. It allows you to optimize not just the biological process itself, but also the entire economic feasibility of your bio-based production process, ensuring long-term success.

Intracellular vs. Extracellular Production

TEA aids in selecting between intracellular and extracellular production methods by considering factors like production location, yield, microbial growth requirements, and downstream processing. Imagine you're developing a process to produce a valuable biochemical and you don't know which microorganism is best for you. Here's a breakdown of the different microbes with potential TEA considerations:


  • Bacteria: Intracellular production often requires additional cell lysis steps, increasing costs.

  • Fungus: Fungi can be efficient extracellular producers, but their growth requirements and nutrients might be more complex than yeast.

  • Yeast: Extracellular production by yeast can simplify downstream processing, potentially leading to cost advantages.


Scenario Analysis: Unveiling Hidden Risks and Opportunities

TEA goes beyond the initial assumptions with scenario analysis to explore potential challenges and uncover hidden opportunities that could impact your bio-based production process:


  • Production Location: While intracellular production might seem efficient based on theoretical yield, the additional cell lysis step for bacteria can significantly increase downstream processing (DSP) complexity and cost. Conversely, extracellular production (fungus and yeast) simplifies purification as the product is readily available in the broth. Scenario analysis helps you quantify this trade-off, considering the impact of varying DSP costs on overall process economics.

  • Yield Variations: What happens if the actual yield of the biochemical from each microorganism falls below expectations? Scenario analysis allows you to model these yield variations and assess their impact on production costs. A high-yielding microorganism with complex DSP might become less attractive if its real-world yield is significantly lower.

  • Microbial Performance Variations: Microbial performance can be sensitive to even minor changes in fermentation conditions like temperature or pH. Scenario analysis helps you evaluate how robust your chosen microorganism is to these variations. Can it maintain its efficiency under slight fluctuations, avoiding disruptions or reduced yields?

  • Microbial Growth Requirements: Different microbes have unique needs for nutrients, temperature, or oxygen availability. These requirements can significantly impact production costs at scale. For instance, some fungi might require a wider temperature range or specific, expensive nutrients. Scenario analysis allows you to explore the cost implications of these variations, helping you identify microbes that are not only efficient producers but also cost-effective to cultivate.

  • Downstream Processing: While the complexity of DSP plays a role, it's just one piece of the economic puzzle. Scenario analysis allows TEA to go beyond the apparent simplicity of DSP. It can reveal hidden costs associated with factors like waste disposal from specific processes or the energy or water consumption required for certain purification techniques. This comprehensive analysis allows you to identify the true cost leader. A seemingly complex intracellular DSP might be offset by a high-yielding microorganism and cheaper feedstock, making it the more economically viable option in the long run.


Scenario analysis empowers you to:


  • Proactively identify potential challenges and develop mitigation strategies.

  • Make informed decisions by understanding the impact of various factors on process economics.

  • Move beyond theoretical yields and identify the most cost-effective bio-based production system for your desired product.


How TEA Helps Select the Champion Microorganism

By running TEA with scenario analysis on different potential microbial producers, you can gain valuable insights to identify the most promising candidate for further development. Here's a breakdown of the process:


  1. Develop TEA Models: Build separate TEA models for each candidate microorganism, accounting for their specific needs (e.g., preferred feedstock, growth requirements) and potential yields.

  2. Run Baseline Scenarios: Analyze each model under a standard set of assumptions to compare their base-case profitability and identify any initial candidates.

  3. Perform Scenario Analysis: Explore how key factors (e.g., feedstock price, yield) affect the profitability of each microorganism. This helps you understand how each candidate performs under different market conditions.

  4. Identify the Champion: The microorganism that demonstrates the most robust performance across various scenarios, considering both biological efficiency and economic viability, is likely your best candidate for further development. Don't be fooled by a microorganism with the highest theoretical yield alone – TEA with scenario analysis helps you identify the true champion that offers the most cost-effective path to large-scale production.



In conclusion, Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) transforms the process of selecting the best microbial producer for bio-based products. By conducting in-silico evaluations, TEA efficiently identifies promising candidates, saving time and resources. It evaluates crucial factors like feedstock costs, equipment expenses, downstream processing complexities, and microbial efficiency, offering comprehensive insights into economic viability.

Scenario analysis further enhances decision-making by exploring the impacts of fluctuating feedstock prices, varying yields, and downstream processing sensitivities, enabling early risk identification. TEA involves developing separate models for each microorganism, analyzing baseline scenarios, and performing scenario analysis to pinpoint the champion producer.

TEA's utility extends to feedstock selection, considering price fluctuations, scalability, conversion efficiency, and alternative sources. It evaluates various feedstock types, including simple sugars, complex sugars, cellulose, hemicellulose, oils and fats, and waste streams, guiding towards optimal choices for bio-based production.

Moreover, TEA facilitates comparisons between intracellular and extracellular production methods, aiding in selecting the most economically viable option. Through strategic utilization of TEA, stakeholders can transcend basic microbial capabilities and identify the most cost-effective pathway to large-scale production success.


Are you ready to optimize your microbial producer selection process for maximum profitability and sustainability in your food tech or biotech venture?

Reach out today to discuss how leveraging comprehensive Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) can guide you towards selecting the most efficient microbial producer for your product.

💬 Share your thoughts below or contact me directly for insightful discussions. Let's unlock your venture's potential together! 🗣️💡


Gustavo Valente

Director, Sustech Innovation

WhatssApp +52 55 3405 0552


 
 
 

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